Спутниковый снимок Ормузского пролива и полуострова Мусандам

Our view

Iran offers to open the strait in 48 hours in exchange for an end to the American blockade, an easing of oil sanctions and a halt to the fighting, and Washington replies with threats to end the war “one way or the other”. We believe a peace offer is called “Tehran’s conditions” only because it includes lifting the pressure America itself created: the blockade was declared by the US, which first struck Iranian facilities and then cut off the ports. Two tankers on mines in Hormuz is a pretext that is easy to exploit: the Iranian side’s claims are unconfirmed, but any flare-up in the strait is convenient for those who want to bring the strike back onto the agenda. Pressure, blockade, a threat of force and a pretended “we are in no hurry” is a familiar trick: drag out the talks until the elections and squeeze out concessions.

This is an editorial opinion.

The mainstream assessment

In Washington and Europe, Tehran’s proposal is seen as an attempt to trade the opening of shipping for the lifting of the blockade and sanctions; many analysts believe the US is not ready to accept the conditions, and the risk of escalation after the US elections remains high. Trump says the talks are “going fine”, but there is no rush.

What happened

Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in two days if the US lifts its blockade. What is known, how it is assessed and what we think.

On November 2 news agencies reported that Iran had offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping within two days if the United States meets its conditions. Earlier Tehran had named a period of seven days.

According to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, on the first day the US must take steps (end the blockade of Iranian ports, unfreeze funds, grant exemptions for Iranian oil, stop fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon), and on the second day shipping would resume along a route agreed with Oman and under Iranian control.

The IRGC navy said two oil tankers, one of them a supertanker, hit mines and exploded in Hormuz on Sunday evening on a route Tehran had not approved. The Iranian side’s data has not been independently confirmed.

Trump said the talks are “going fine” and Iran wants a deal, but the US is in no hurry; at a campaign rally he repeated that he would end the war “one way or the other”. Secretary of State Rubio said no decision on new strikes had been made and a diplomatic way out remained possible.

Washington has not accepted the offer so far.

Read also: Iran: Qatar seeks a deal while the threat of new strikes hangs over the elections.

Sources

Photo: NASA / MODIS, public domain, Wikimedia Commons (the Strait of Hormuz and the Musandam Peninsula, satellite image).

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